Brief: Record Renewables Cut Texas Gas Demand

Mobius Intel Brief:

ERCOT's wind and solar fleet broke all-time generation records this week, hitting a new high combined output of nearly 40 GW on Tuesday. ERCOT solar followed up this afternoon with an independent all-time high of 26.32 GW—nearly 1.3 GW higher than the previous record notched earlier this month.

Key Intel:

• In line with historical shoulder season trends, Texas’ renewable fleet benefitted from the arrival of Spring winds and longer days since the beginning of March. Renewables met an average of 52% of ERCOT load over the trailing seven days versus a Jan-Feb average of 34%.

• Renewable output met nearly 76% of mid-afternoon power demand seven times this month — the highest share of ERCOT load met by renewables on record.

• Mild weather and strong renewable output has weighed on Texas’ demand for gas-fired generation since the beginning of March. The share of gas in ERCOT’s total fuel mix sank to an average of 24% over the past week versus a Jan-Feb average of over 40%.

• As shown below, ERCOT’s highest frequency of negative power price hours concentrates in the Spring months when mild temperatures limit demand and strong winds boost wind generation to its highest. ERCOT’s solar fleet will likely see a streak of new records this year as Texas’ grid operator will add approximately 7.1 GW in 2025 or approximately 37% of the 19.1 GW of total U.S. solar capacity growth.

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