Brief: Record Lows in the DOE's Final Inventory Report of 2024

Cushing OK crude stocks fall to their lowest seasonal level in the history of DOE data in the final US inventory report of 2024.

January 02, 2025 • Est. Reading Time: 4 minutes

Mobius Intel Brief:

The DOE’s final weekly petroleum inventory report of 2024 showed US crude inventories declined for the sixth-consecutive week to close out the year at the lowest levels in recent history.

Key Intel

  • Cushing, OK, crude stocks finished the year at 22.5 MMb — the lowest seasonal level in data going back to 2008.

  • Likewise, DOE-reported total US crude inventories closed out 2024 at 415.6 MMb — the lowest seasonal level since 2014.

  • US product stocks were mixed in the DOE’s final 2024 weekly inventory report.

  • Despite starting Nov 2024 at 10YR lows, the DOE’s data shows US gasoline stocks recovered above their 10YR seasonal average with last week’s 7.7 MMb build.

  • A similarly large 6.4 MMb build in US distillate stocks last week lifted inventories off 10YR lows to 122.87 MMb — above 2022’s closing print but still the 3rd lowest seasonal level in the last ten years.

  • Fund managers’ futures and options positioning (available for Market Pro subscribers here) shows sentiment remains focused on the crude market’s muddy demand outlook and disconnected from US inventory levels.

Takeaways

The DOE’s final weekly data points reinforce questions highlighted in recent Intel Briefs and Daily Market Updates. Namely, how long can/will the market ignore low US and global crude inventories amidst extended OPEC production cuts and existing/forthcoming Chinese economic stimulus measures?

This week’s OPEC production data could provide more directional cues for the market after the DOE’s October US production data broke a nearly year-long trend of sequentially flat production growth with the strongest month-on-month increase since September 2022 to a new all-time high of 13.46 MMb/d.

This commentary contains our views and opinions and is based on information from sources we believe are reliable. This commentary is for informational purposes, should not be considered investment advice, and is not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase and sale of commodity interests or to serve as the basis for one to decide to execute derivatives or other transactions. This commentary is exclusively intended for Mobius clients and is not considered promotional material.