Brief: Record Crude Imports from Canada & Heavy Crude Questions

Record high weekly crude imports from Canada in the first week of 2025 contrast against a steady decline in imports from Mexico as Pemex production troubles continue.

January 09, 2025 • Est. Reading Time: 3 minutes

Mobius Intel Brief:

U.S. crude imports from Canada averaged a new record high of 4.42 MMb/d, according to last week’s preliminary DOE data. Meanwhile, imports from Mexico reflect Pemex’s steady production declines, averaging just north of 400 Kb/d in 4Q24 vs the trailing 10YR average of 612 Kb/d.

Key Intel

  • US daily average imports of Canadian crude hit a new record of 4.422 MMb/d in the EIA’s first preliminary weekly data, surpassing the previous high of 4.418 MMb/d set in July 2024 after the completion of Canada’s Trans Mountain Expansion project.

  • Midwest (PADD2) imports of Canadian crude hit a ~two-year low in October after the expanded 890 Kb/d TMX pipeline began shipments to the Pacific Coast. Since then, PADD2 imports have returned near the pre-TMX 2024 average of approximately 3.1 MMb/d.

  • Record imports from Canada contrast against imports from Mexico. The US imported an average of approximately 460 Kb/d from Mexico in 2024, nearly a quarter of a million barrels/day below the average for 2023 and approximately 150 Kb/d below the trailing 10YR average.

  • While Pemex’s new Dos Bocas refinery could further erode US import volumes in 2025, 2024’s decrease stems from Pemex’s significant production declines that reduced output to a multi-decade low of under 1.5 MMb/d by the start of 4Q24.

Looking Ahead

The potential for an imminent reinstatement of sanctions enforcement on Venezuelan and Iranian oil industries under President Trump could extend knock-on effects to US refiners, whose appetite for heavier crude slates is greater than the sum of Canadian and Mexican supplies.

Reduced volumes of extra-heavy Venezuelan Merey or medium-heavy Iran Heavy on the global stage could compound the impact of fewer barrels of Mexican Maya on US refining margins as we near the commercial startup of Pemex’s 340 Kb/d Dos Bocas refinery.

This commentary contains our views and opinions and is based on information from sources we believe are reliable. This commentary is for informational purposes, should not be considered investment advice, and is not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase and sale of commodity interests or to serve as the basis for one to decide to execute derivatives or other transactions. This commentary is exclusively intended for Mobius clients and is not considered promotional material.