Brief: Reciprocal Tariff Key Takeaways

Mobius Intel Brief:

President Trump announced long-anticipated reciprocal tariffs this afternoon, targeting the largest sources of the U.S.’ ~$1.2 trillion trade deficit in goods last year with import duties ranging between 10% and 50% according to the foreign nation’s rate on U.S. goods.

Today’s Intel Brief highlights several immediate takeaways and notable exemptions for energy and other commodities. Dedicated analyses on tariff-related market impacts will be released as more concrete details emerge.

Key Intel

• 10% Tariff Baseline: A 10% tariff on all countries will take effect April 5, 2025

• Reciprocal Tariffs: Individualized reciprocal tariffs on countries with which the U.S. has the largest trade deficits will go into effect April 9, 2025. The 10% baseline tariff will continue to apply to all other countries. Country-level reciprocal tariff rates are shown below.

• Fluid Duration: Tariffs will remain in effect until President Trump “determines that the threat posed by the trade deficit and underlying nonreciprocal treatment is satisfied, resolved, or mitigated.”

• Canadian & Mexican Energy: As noted in previous Mobius Research, U.S. imports of crude, natural gas, and electricity produced in Canada and Mexico are protected by the USMCA’s rules of origin. As shown in the full excerpt below, USMCA compliant goods will continue to see a 0% tariff, meaning U.S. imports of crude from Canada, which account for approximately 70% of total imported barrels, will not face additional import duties.

• Reciprocal Tariff Exemptions: Reciprocal tariffs will not apply to six broad categories of goods (full excerpt below). Copper, semiconductors, lumber, energy and “other certain minerals that are not available in the United States” will be exempt from reciprocal tariffs.

The U.S. February trade balance data will arrive via the Bureau of Economic Analysis tomorrow. The U.S. posted a record trade deficit of $131.4 billion in January after imports jumped approximately 10% month-on-month to an all-time high of $401.2 billion versus a 1.2% M/M increase in U.S. exports to $269.8 billion.

Notable Excerpts from the White House

• USMCA Compliant Goods: “For Canada and Mexico, the existing fentanyl/migration IEEPA orders remain in effect, and are unaffected by this order. This means USMCA compliant goods will continue to see a 0% tariff, non-USMCA compliant goods will see a 25% tariff, and non-USMCA compliant energy and potash will see a 10% tariff. In the event the existing fentanyl/migration IEEPA orders are terminated, USMCA compliant goods would continue to receive preferential treatment, while non-USMCA compliant goods would be subject to a 12% reciprocal tariff.”

• Exempt from Reciprocal Tariffs: “Some goods will not be subject to the Reciprocal Tariff. These include: (1) articles subject to 50 USC 1702(b); (2) steel/aluminum articles and autos/auto parts already subject to Section 232 tariffs; (3) copper, pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, and lumber articles; (4) all articles that may become subject to future Section 232 tariffs; (5) bullion; and (6) energy and other certain minerals that are not available in the United States.”

Reciprocal Tariff Rates

• President Trump’s April 2 Executive Order, Regulating Imports with a Reciprocal Tariff to Rectify Trade Practices that Contribute to Large and Persistent Annual United States Goods Trade Deficits.

This commentary contains our views and opinions and is based on information from sources we believe are reliable. This commentary is for informational purposes, should not be considered investment advice, and is not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase and sale of commodity interests or to serve as the basis for one to decide to execute derivatives or other transactions. This commentary is exclusively intended for Mobius clients and is not considered promotional material.