Brief: March Iranian, Venezuelan Output Shows Limited Impact of Maximum Pressure Campaign 2.0

Mobius Intel Brief:

OPEC’s March production data via the April ‘25 MOMR shows limited immediate impacts from the Trump administration’s reinstated maximum pressure campaign on Iran. Iranian crude production gained to an average of 3.34 MMb/d last month—the highest since August 2018.

Key Intel

• OPEC’s April 2025 MOMR showed Iranian output wasn’t the only sanctioned nation with resilient production in March. While OPEC’s monthly production data from secondary sources showed Iranian output gained 138 kb/d year-on-year to 3.34 MMb/d in March, April’s MOMR showed conflicting estimates for Venezuela.

• Secondary sources reported Venezuelan production fell to 911 kb/d in March from 915 kb/d in February. Meanwhile, Venezuela’s direct communication with OPEC suggested output gained 23 kb/d M/M to 1.05 MMb/d. If direct reports are accurate, Venezuela’s March output would be the country’s highest since May 2019—prior to the Trump administration’s freeze on all Venezuelan government assets in August of the same year.

• Combined Iranian and Venezuelan (direct-reported) output in March was 1.8 MMb/d higher than the levels observed in post-COVID January 2021. While spare Saudi (and broader OPEC+) capacity could offset Trump-related disruptions to Iranian and Venezuelan supplies, this leverage warrants caution amidst turbulent trade negotiations. Crude markets will be particularly sensitive to the timing and volume of Saudi Arabia’s returned barrels.

Looking Ahead

• While March’s data shows limited impact from the Trump administration’s reinstated maximum pressure campaign on Iran and renewed measures against the Maduro regime in Venezuela, Saudi Arabia’s decision to preemptively return >400 kb/d of offline OPEC+ production in May suggests more aggressive targeting of sanctioned barrels could take effect imminently.

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