Brief: Hedge Funds Slash Length in TTF As Regulators Relax Storage Mandates

Money managers removed over 150 million contracts of long interest in Dutch TTF over the past three weeks as warm weather and new regulations ease imminent storage risks

March 05, 2025 • Est. Reading Time: 4 minutes

Mobius Intel Brief:

The European Commission issued new recommendations on Wednesday to relax gas storage mandates and grant member states “sufficient flexibility to fill storage facilities throughout the summer at optimal purchase conditions…”

  • Alongside these recommendations, the European Commission proposed a two-year extension on storage mandates that would require member states to fill facilities to 90% of capacity by November 1 with '“indicative” intermediate storage targets.

Key Intel:

  • European regulators’ new recommendations allow member states to adapt summer buying to market conditions and, if required, push the 90% storage target deadline beyond November 1.

  • Hedge Funds Shed Length: Reports that the European Commission was considering easing mandates compounded the effects of warmer March forecasts on money managers’ futures and options positioning over the past three weeks. Hedge funds slashed aggregate long interest in Dutch TTF by over 151 million contracts in the three weeks since the April ‘25 TTF contract traded over $17.50/MMBtu—the largest three-week exit since April 2022. The 70 million contracts removed last week was the largest one-week exit in money managers’ long interest since March 2022.

  • Summer/Winter Spread: Dutch TTF’s summer ‘25 premium over winter ‘25-’26 narrowed to $0.457/MMBtu today from $1.450/MMBtu on Feb 10. Apr ‘25 TTF has hovered near $13/MMBtu this week, down from $17.50 in mid-Feb.

  • Latest EU Storage: Aggregate EU gas in storage fell to 1,458 Bcf (37.3% of capacity) by yesterday afternoon, expanding Europe’s Y/Y storage deficit to -951 Bcf. Since October 1, aggregate EU gas inventories have depleted by nearly 2,234 Bcf — the third-largest season-to-date drawdown in the last fourteen years. Europe’s gas inventories have swiftly depleted despite warmer-than-normal temperatures for December, January, and February. A particularly warm second-half of February raised last month’s observed temperature anomalies between 3-6 degrees warmer than normal for most of Western Europe. This late-Feb warmth cut average daily withdrawals to ~13.5 Bcf/d from ~24 Bcf/d in the first two weeks of the month.

This commentary contains our views and opinions and is based on information from sources we believe are reliable. This commentary is for informational purposes, should not be considered investment advice, and is not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase and sale of commodity interests or to serve as the basis for one to decide to execute derivatives or other transactions. This commentary is exclusively intended for Mobius clients and is not considered promotional material.