Brief: Exxon's Q1 Guyana Output

Mobius Intel Brief:

Guyana's March production data showed a 21 kb/d M/M decrease in average daily crude production to 628 kb/d, dropping average daily output for Exxon's three FPSOs in the first quarter of 2025 to 631.6 kb/d from 4Q24's 651.6 kb/d.

Key Intel

• Average daily production on all three of the Exxon-led consortium’s active FPSOs fell in March. The newest Prosperity FPSO led monthly declines, dropping 12.9 kb/d to 238 kb/d.

• March’s 21.3 kb/d month-on-month decrease in average daily output cut Guyana’s first quarter production to 631.6 kb/d—down 3.1% Q/Q but up 3.0% Y/Y.

• After posting a rare premium over Brent in February and early March, Guyana’s medium-heavy Payara Gold (produced via the Prosperity FPSO) succumbed to fading fears about Canadian crude tariffs and new uncertainties about economic activity in Europe and Asia. Payara Gold posted an average discount of $1.245/bbl vs. Brent in April and was last at -$1.65/bbl this week.

Looking Ahead

• Guyana’s energy and natural resources ministry anticipates production gaining to ~780-790 kb/d by 4Q25 with the startup of the Exxon consortium’s Yellowtail Project’s 250 kb/d ‘One Guyana’ FPSO. One Guyana arrived in Guyana earlier this month and has begun installation procedures. Exxon expects its Guyana production capacity will rise to ~950 kb/d once the Yellowtail project is online.

• Two additional 250 kb/d FPSOs will come online by year-end 2027.

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