Brief: EU Gas Storage Drains At Fastest Pace in 8 Years

Mobius Intel Brief:

The EU’s gas inventories have fallen at the fastest pace since 2016 as low winds and the first colder-than-normal winter since the beginning of the Russia-Ukraine conflict envelope the bloc.

Key Intel:

• EU gas in storage has dropped by more than 370 Bcf (-10.9%) since October 1st — the most since 2016 and approximately 4x faster than the 10YR average seasonal pace.

• EU inventories are down to 85% full from over 95% at the start of November.

• Weather models show avg. temperatures in NW Europe falling as much as 8º F below the 30-year mean to slightly above freezing in the second week of December.

• The Jan ‘25 Dutch TTF contract gained nearly 23% from the start of November as inventory withdrawals accelerated, holding Jan. ‘25 TTF near parity with JKM.

Europe’s gas supply vulnerabilities are in focus as cold temperatures arrive in the final month before the expected expiration of the Gazprom-Ukraine transit agreement.

• The summer ‘25-winter ‘25-’26 spread flipped from an $0.08/MMBTU discount on Nov. 1 to a $1.01/MMBTU premium this week.

• Fund managers’ cut short interest in Dutch TTF to the lowest in over a year, sending net length to its highest in over a year at nearly 280 MM contracts.

This commentary contains our views and opinions and is based on information from sources we believe are reliable. This commentary is for informational purposes, should not be considered investment advice, and is not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase and sale of commodity interests or to serve as the basis for one to decide to execute derivatives or other transactions. This commentary is exclusively intended for Mobius clients and is not considered promotional material.