Brief: ERCOT's Record-Packed Week

Texas' grid notched new records this week, including a new all-time high net load of nearly 71 GW. Solar generation hit the highest and second-highest output in history over a four-day span.

February 20, 2025 • Est. Reading Time: 4 minutes

Mobius Intel Brief:

Net load on the ERCOT grid hit a new all-time high of nearly 71 GW at 7:00 this morning, surpassing the previous record of 70 GW set in August 2024 and becoming the only non-summer peak in ERCOT’s net load top-10.

  • Texas’ new net load record arrived as total ERCOT demand broke above 80 GW this morning and renewable output sank to the second-lowest levels of the week.

  • A 60% D/D collapse in wind generation was offset by a strong return in solar output by mid-day today as ERCOT solar generation notched its second-best performance on record — four days after setting a new all-time high.

  • Texas solar set a new generation record of 24.3 GW on February 16. Sunday’s record was followed by the fleet’s second-highest output of 22.9 GW this afternoon (Feb 20).

  • Total demand on the Texas grid averaged approximately 70.1 GW over the 48 hours ending at 15:00 today. Natural gas met an average of 35 GW of this demand, followed by 20 GW supplied by Texas’ wind and solar.

  • Renewables’ share of total load hit a 48-hour low of 13% in the evening hours of February 19 before accelerating with today’s solar output to 41% of total load at 15:00 today. The rebound in solar generation limited today’s real-time wholesale power prices at ERCOT Hub North to a peak of approximately $315/MWh — below ERCOT’s day-ahead forecast of $914/MWh.

Looking Ahead

  • The EIA’s latest planned generation capacity data shows Texas will add approximately 7.1 GW in 2025 or approximately 37% of the 19.1 GW of total U.S. solar capacity growth in 2025.

  • Net load “duck curves” will add cycling stress and reliability risks to the ERCOT grid as solar capacity grows. Similarly, a higher frequency of negative power price hours will narrow the profitability window for non-subsidized thermal generation capacity, adding upside skew to volatility risks as ERCOT demand growth surges.

This commentary contains our views and opinions and is based on information from sources we believe are reliable. This commentary is for informational purposes, should not be considered investment advice, and is not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase and sale of commodity interests or to serve as the basis for one to decide to execute derivatives or other transactions. This commentary is exclusively intended for Mobius clients and is not considered promotional material.