Brief: ERCOT's First Glimpse of Summer Heat

But China's March crude imports offer positive demand signal

May 15, 2025 • Est. Reading Time: 4 minutes

Mobius Intel Brief:

ERCOT had its first seasonal encounter with Texas heat this week as system-wide midafternoon temperatures jumped ~13 degrees above the trailing four-week average between May 12 and May 15. 

  • ERCOT hit peak load of nearly 78 GW in the afternoon of May 14 before easing below 75 GW at peak today (May 15)

  • In line with historical shoulder season trends, Texas’ renewable fleet approached its best performance of the year and offset as much as 68% of total system-wide load in the early hours of May 13.

  • Net load in the early hours of May 14 held below the trailing four-week average despite total load hitting its highest level of the same period.

  • While overall load was lower today, a sharp mid-morning collapse in Texas wind generation (more below) sent net load to its highest mid-afternoon level of the last 30 days today.

  • Combined wind and solar generation touched the top of the trailing four-week hourly range on Tuesday (May 13) and Wednesday (May 14) before falling below the trailing four-week average this afternoon.

  • Today’s drop in renewables was almost entirely led by Texas’ wind fleet as output fell 69.6% between 6 a.m. and 1 p.m. to the bottom of the trailing four-week range.

  • As shown with net load above, the sharp decline in wind pushed more demand to Texas’ gas-fired units—which recorded their highest mid-afternoon output in the last thirty days.

Looking Ahead

  • This week’s short episode of Texas heat was demonstrative of strong shoulder season renewables.

  • ERCOT’s wind fleet is quickly approaching its annual inflection point where generation declines and cooling demand accelerates.

  • A hot summer and economic growth could surprise market demand expectations to the upside after consecutive triple-digit L48 storage injections and a rapid rebound in southern salt storage

This commentary contains our views and opinions and is based on information from sources we believe are reliable. This commentary is for informational purposes, should not be considered investment advice, and is not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase and sale of commodity interests or to serve as the basis for one to decide to execute derivatives or other transactions. This commentary is exclusively intended for Mobius clients and is not considered promotional material.