Brief: ERCOT Renewables Demonstrate Inherent Reliability Risks

ERCOT renewable generation hit an all-time hourly record of over 38k MW this week before collapsing by 97% to 1k MW in fewer than four days

January 29, 2025 • Est. Reading Time: 3 minutes

Mobius Intel Brief:

ERCOT renewables demonstrated the inherent reliability risks of intermittent generation this week, as wind and solar output hit an all-time hourly record of nearly 38.4k MW on January 24th before collapsing by over 97% to a combined 1k MW by the morning of January 28th.

Key Intel

  • ERCOT’s wind fleet posted a four-day range of over 26.4k MW as output fell from an hourly peak of 26.7k MW on January 24th before falling to an hourly trough of just 300 MW on January 28th.

  • Cloudy skies similarly reduced solar output, which hit a peak of over 20.5k MW on January 24th before falling to an intraday peak of approximately 7.6k MW on January 28th.

  • Renewables met nearly 70% of ERCOT load at peak output on Jan. 24th, reducing the share of load met by gas-fired generation to less than 14%. Four days later, renewables met just 2% of ERCOT load, raising the share met by gas-fired units to approximately 67%.

  • Still, the arrival of warmer weather on Jan 28th eased upward pressure on wholesale electricity prices, which posted two intra-week highs of >$100/MWh when combined renewable output rapidly fell below 10% of ERCOT load.

Takeaways

  • The performance of ERCOT’s renewable fleet underscores the resource planning challenges that grid operators must overcome when integrating unpredictable generation fuels.

  • While the seasonality of wind and solar generation varies by region, the reliability risks and price consequences that emerge from an imbalanced generation mix are extensible. These effects are evident in North American ISOs like ERCOT and CAISO. They are similarly evident in Germany, where anti-nuclear ‘energiewende’ energy policy has exposed household consumers to the highest average electricity costs in the EU.

  • The probable step-change in electricity demand growth from industrial electrification and emerging technologies in economic hotspots like Texas will amplify these price volatility and power reliability risks.

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