Brief: Domestic Industrial Demand Signals

Mobius Intel Brief:

The U.S. trade deficit in goods and services hit another record $140.5 billion in March (+14.5% M/M) as imports jumped nearly $17.9 billion (+4.5%) M/M and exports added just $456 million (+0.16%) M/M.

Downstream effects of producers’ Dec-Mar import surge appeared in the ISM’s April manufacturing indicators, which showed overall sector contraction from expanding inventories, higher input prices, and contracting orders.

The ISM’s anecdotal survey responses are typically more volatile than fundamental demand indicators like U.S. refined product consumption, which remains stronger relative to 2024 and the 5YR seasonal average.

Upcoming DoE demand prints will be closely watched to determine whether stronger-than-normal U.S. distillate consumption is a structural theme or a transient byproduct of 1Q25’s import surge.

This commentary contains our views and opinions and is based on information from sources we believe are reliable. This commentary is for informational purposes, should not be considered investment advice, and is not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase and sale of commodity interests or to serve as the basis for one to decide to execute derivatives or other transactions. This commentary is exclusively intended for Mobius clients and is not considered promotional material.