- Mobius Market Research
- Posts
- Brief: Crude Sentiment v. Data
Brief: Crude Sentiment v. Data
The DoE's latest inventory data showed crude inventories at Cushing, OK, remain historically low, a trend shared by U.S. stocks of refined products
Mobius Intel Brief:
The global crude market’s prevailing narrative suggests forthcoming OPEC+ production growth of 411 kb/d in May and June will exceed current demand capacity.
However, a closer look at a) underlying fundamentals and b) the net change in OPEC+ production after accounting for updated compliance shows a more compelling story for the 2025 S&D balance.
Today’s DoE stats contain several of these supportive fundamental data points, including the following highlights:
Crude stocks at the Cushing, OK, hub fell to 24.96 MMb—below the five-year seasonal min and the lowest seasonal level since 2014. As shown below, Cushing stocks are below the seasonally-adjusted 10th percentile for data since 2006.

Total U.S. crude inventories (excl. SPR) are down 21 MMb Y/Y and are nearly 33 MMb below the 5YR seasonal mean.

Product inventories remain bullish, with total U.S. distillate stocks narrowly surpassing the lowest levels since 2006. At 106.7 MMb, distillate inventories are well below the 2006-2024 seasonally-adjusted 10th percentile. Likewise, U.S. gasoline inventories are over 2 MMb bullish Y/Y and ~7 MMb below the 5YR seasonal mean.

OPEC+ Compliance Cuts?
The net change in planned OPEC+ production in May 2025 is just 33 kb/d after including updated compliance cuts announced after the Apr 3 OPEC+ decision to bring forward three months of scheduled growth (+411 kb/d). Updated quotas for June will arrive at the middle of this month.


This commentary contains our views and opinions and is based on information from sources we believe are reliable. This commentary is for informational purposes, should not be considered investment advice, and is not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase and sale of commodity interests or to serve as the basis for one to decide to execute derivatives or other transactions. This commentary is exclusively intended for Mobius clients and is not considered promotional material.