Brief: China's 2024 Crude Imports Fall, Iron Ore Imports Hit Record

Data from the General Administration of Customs, China, shows crude imports fell to 11.2 MMb/d in December from 11.72 MMb/d in November for a 2024 average of approximately 11 MMb/d

January 15, 2025 • Est. Reading Time: 4 minutes

Mobius Intel Brief:

Data from China’s General Administration of Customs showed China’s December crude imports fell to an average of 11.2 MMb/d from November’s ~11.7 MMb/d settled 1% below December 2023.

Key Intel

  • The latest data cut China’s 2024 average crude imports to approximately 11 MMb/d from 2023’s record daily average of approximately 11.2 MMb/d.

  • While 2024’s data does not reflect the framing of ‘bearish Chinese demand’ in broader media coverage, it is a deviation from China’s role as the crude market’s primary growth engine.

  • According to Chinese crude inventory estimates reviewed by Mobius, Chinese crude stocks have gained to their highest seasonal levels in history at approximately 1.02 billion barrels vs a 2019-2024 average of 910 MMb.

  • China’s healthy crude inventories contrast against levels in other regions of the world like the U.S., where total commercial US crude stocks have fallen to their lowest seasonal level in a decade and inventories at Cushing, OK, have fallen to their lowest seasonal and unadjusted levels since 2008.

  • China’s crude stocks will provide a safety buffer against the immediate impacts of US sanctions on Russia and their downstream effects on Iranian and Venezuelan supplies.

Looking Ahead

Trump administration tariff threats and fragile post-COVID economic activity will likely force Chinese officials to continue their recent streak of stimulus measures to boost domestic consumption and limit damage from trade disputes and reduced demand for manufactured exports. Whether this stimulus can offset these economic impacts and meaningfully improve Chinese crude demand remains unclear.

With Chinese demand growth in question, other Asian countries like India and Indonesia will be closely watched in 2025 for medium-term cues into crude demand growth.

Other Notable Artifacts From China’s 2024 Customs Data

China’s 2024 iron ore imports set a new annual record for the second-consecutive year, reaching approximately 1.24 billion metric tons from the previous record of 1.18 billion notched in 2023. While the headline data will likely ease some concerns about China’s broader economic activity, limited steel demand from China’s property sector has weighed on total steel output (-3% Y/Y) and led to a buildup of iron ore stockpiles. Several of China’s 2024 stimulus measures aimed to boost demand for new-but-unsold residential real estate, protracting the timeline to discernable effects on underlying commodity consumption.

This commentary contains our views and opinions and is based on information from sources we believe are reliable. This commentary is for informational purposes, should not be considered investment advice, and is not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase and sale of commodity interests or to serve as the basis for one to decide to execute derivatives or other transactions. This commentary is exclusively intended for Mobius clients and is not considered promotional material.