Brief: Cautionary Signals in U.S. Product Demand

Mobius Intel Brief:

Today’s weekly DoE petroleum stats showed moderate deterioration in U.S. refined product demand as the rolling four-week average of total U.S. product supplied sank to 19.62 MMb/d versus 20.2 MMb/d at the same point last year.

Cautionary demand signals were evident for each of the “Big 3” products, led by a sharp decline in U.S. distillate product supplied to a rolling four-week average of 3.57 MMb/d versus 3.72 MMb/d at the same point last year and a 2012+ seasonally-adjusted median of 4.0 MMb/d.

• As shown below, the 4-Wk SMA of total U.S. distillate supplied fell substantially below the 2012+ 10th percentile of 3.7 MMb/d, hitting the lowest week 20 level since COVID 2020.

U.S. finished gasoline supplied also fell this week, with the series’ four-week SMA dropping to 8.81 MMb/d versus a 2012+ seasonally-adjusted median of 8.91 MMb/d and 9.07 MMb/d for the same week last year.

While this week’s data on total U.S. kerosene-type jet fuel weakened, U.S. jet demand has outperformed all other products in 2025.

• U.S. jet fuel supplied fell to a four-week SMA of 1.69 MMb/d this week, ending a six-week stretch of prints above the 2012+ 90th percentile. Jet fuel consumption recorded four seasonal records in the last seven weeks, including a 2.02 MMb/d average for the first week of May that was over 500 kb/d above last year.

While jet fuel accounts for just ~9% of total U.S. product consumption, strong YTD demand data and record underlying TSA passenger counts offer some anecdotal support to U.S. economic health.

Takeaways

Weaker U.S. gasoline supplied warrants caution, though data will likely improve markedly in the coming weeks as summer driving season begins.

Weaker U.S. distillate consumption is a reflection of the industrial sector’s preemptive efforts to mitigate the effects of tariffs by front-loading imports in 2H24 and 1Q25. Distillate consumption will likely see more downside pressure until trade deals resolve near-term tariff threats.

This commentary contains our views and opinions and is based on information from sources we believe are reliable. This commentary is for informational purposes, should not be considered investment advice, and is not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase and sale of commodity interests or to serve as the basis for one to decide to execute derivatives or other transactions. This commentary is exclusively intended for Mobius clients and is not considered promotional material.