Brief: Asia Plans for More US LNG

US LNG offers antidote to ballooning trade surpluses against the United States as major economies in Asia seek to shrink tariff targets

February 12, 2025 • Est. Reading Time: 3 minutes

Mobius Intel Brief:

The U.S. trade balance in goods sank to a record deficit of $122 billion in December—nearly double the US goods trade deficit in December 2019— and the exporters on the other side of this imbalance are keenly aware of the tariff target this presents to the second Trump administration as trade negotiations escalate.

Key Intel

  • Six export-centric economies in Asia have already announced plans to step up purchases of US energy exports to offset trade surpluses and preemptively placate the Trump administration.

  • Four of the world’s largest LNG importers— Japan, South Korea, India, and Taiwan—have announced plans to secure more US LNG or purchase stakes in US LNG projects since the Trump administration took office in January.

  • US LNG exports to these four countries increased by approximately 232% over the Trump administration’s first term, gaining from an average of 0.6 Bcf/d in 2017 to 2.1 Bcf/d in 2020. Exports dropped from a peak of 3.1 Bcf/d in 2021 to 2.3 Bcf/d in 2023 and 2.8 Bcf/d in 2024.

Looking Ahead:

  • Like major exporters in Asia, the European Union has announced plans to pare its trade surplus against the United States with purchases of US energy exports. Swiftly depleting EU gas inventories will likely add incremental tailwinds for US LNG through Europe’s summer refill season.

  • Germany’s upcoming chancellorship election on February 23 poses knock-on effects for US energy exports as leading opposition candidates aim to increase gas-fired generation capacity and decrease reliance on wind. Energy security and the role of US natural gas will be core themes in US-Germany trade negotiations following this week’s data that showed Germany notched a record trade surplus against the United States in December.

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