Mobius Market Research

ES #151: The Trump Venezuela Plan

ES #151: The Trump Venezuela Plan

Bullish and bearish consequences of Operation Resolution Absolute and the U.S. push for a post-Maduro Venezuela

ES #150: OPEC8+ Hike... Then Pause

ES #150: OPEC8+ Hike... Then Pause

The eight members of the OPEC+ voluntary cut crew (OPEC8+) announced their ninth consecutive hike on Sunday, but there's a twist...

ES #149: Schrödinger's Demand

ES #149: Schrödinger's Demand

The eight members of the OPEC+ voluntary cut crew (OPEC8+) announced their seventh consecutive monthly production hike on Sunday.

ES #148: $750 billion in US energy

ES #148: $750 billion in US energy

The U.S. and EU struck a trade deal on Sunday afternoon that, according to a joint press conference between President Trump and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, includes a 15% tariff on nearly all EU goods (excl. metals and pharmaceuticals), a $600 billion increase in EU investments into the US, and an EU commitment to purchase $750 billion of U.S. energy exports.

ES #147: China v. U.S. is about energy

ES #147: China v. U.S. is about energy

China generated over 10,000 TWh of electricity in 2024, more than doubling total U.S. power output as the global AI resource race heats up

ES #146: The World's Ten Fastest-Growing Gas Producers & Consumers

ES #146: The World's Ten Fastest-Growing Gas Producers & Consumers

The ten largest and fastest-growing countries by liquids production, oil demand, and refinery capacity from 2023 to 2024.

ES #145: OPEC8+ Surprises

ES #145: OPEC8+ Surprises

The eight members of the OPEC+ ‘voluntary cut crew’ (OPEC8+) announced a 548 kb/d production hike for August this weekend, surpassing the market’s expectations for a fourth consecutive 411 kb/d M/M increase in the OPEC8+ August quota.

ES #144: The World's Ten Fastest-Growing Oil Producers & Consumers

ES #144: The World's Ten Fastest-Growing Oil Producers & Consumers

The ten largest and fastest-growing countries by liquids production, oil demand, and refinery capacity from 2023 to 2024.

ES #143: Strait of Hormuz & Brent-WTI Spread

ES #143: Strait of Hormuz & Brent-WTI Spread

Rolling prompt Brent-WTI spread narrowed over 60% from the Jan 2-Jun 12 average of $3.14/bbl to $1.25 on June 13

ES #142: Targeting Iranian Energy Infrastructure

ES #142: Targeting Iranian Energy Infrastructure

After several waves of escalating exchanges since Israel’s initial strikes late last week, the Israeli campaign against Iran expanded to include direct attacks on Iranian energy infrastructure on June 14-15.

ES #141: Fed Spreads & Recession

ES #141: Fed Spreads & Recession

The spread between the effective federal funds rate and the market yield on U.S. 2YR Treasuries is currently at the 86th percentile of its 1999-2025 historical distribution as the Fed's 168-day pause since its last rate cut indicates increasing downside risks from politicization

ES #140: Record U.S. Production, Fading Growth

ES #140: Record U.S. Production, Fading Growth

A closer look at underlying trends in the EIA’s delayed monthly data reveals signs of diminished growth potential that precede 1) WTI’s recent retreat to $60 (Mar ‘25 WTI settled at $72.57 and Apr ‘25 WTI settled at $68.28) and 2) the latest additions to OPEC’s accelerated production schedule.